By including short-term natural events, such as El Nino, a UK team says it is able to offer 10-year projections.More info at BBC News.
Models have previously focused on how the globe will warm over a century.
Writing in Science, Met Office researchers project that at least half of the years between 2009 and 2014 are likely to exceed existing records.
However, the Hadley Centre researchers said that the influence of natural climatic variations were likely to dampen the effects of emissions from human activities between now and 2009.
But over the decade as a whole, they project the global average temperature in 2014 to be 0.3C warmer than 2004.
Currently, 1998 is the warmest year on record, when the global mean surface temperature was 14.54C (58.17F).
Doug Smith, a climate scientist at the Hadley Centre, explained how the new model differed from existing ones.
"On a 10-year timescale, both natural internal variability and the global warming signal (human induced climate change) are important; whereas looking out to 2100, only the global warming signal will dominate."
Scientists present 10-year climate model
Posted on Monday, Aug 13 2007 @ 04:30 CEST by Thomas De Maesschalck
A team of scientists from the UK have created a projection of how the climate will change over the next decade: