DRAM expects to get more expensive in next three years

DRAMeXchange identifies DRAM industry cycle by about 3 years. According to the company’s analysis, DRAM vendors experienced continuous losses in 2001-2003 and consecutive profit from 2004 to 2006, followed by another decline from 2007 to 2009. In 2010, DRAM vendors are set to start to turn to profit and enter another profit cycle. Given the recovering global economy, corporate replacement and consumer stimulation by Windows 7 and other factors DRAMeXchange expects DRAM industry likely enter another positive cycle with anticipated profit in the next 3 years.

There is a problem, though, costly immersion scanners are required for 50nm and below technology migration. Besides DRAM industry, other semiconductor vendors such as TSMC and UMC will also need immersion scanners on technology migration. ASML, a supplier of immersion scanner, has occupied above 90% market share accordingly. With the full utilization status, the time table for delivery becomes uncertain and this situation may delay the technology migration for DRAM vendors.