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Intel co-founder Moore amazed his prediction has lasted so long

Posted on Wednesday, May 13 2015 @ 10:39:51 CEST by

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In an interview with New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore reveals he's amazed that Moore's Law, his prediction about technology advancements, has lasted so long.

Moore explains that when he formulated his prediction in 1965 that the numbers of transistors in a chip would double roughly every year (which he revised to every two years in 1975) he was only looking 10 years out and didn't expect the industry would be able to follow it for decades with such precision.
Gordon Moore, speaking at an event Monday celebrating the 50th anniversary of his theory that processor power improves exponentially every two years, said when he made the prediction in 1965, he was only looking 10 years out, not multiple decades.

"I had no idea it was going to turn out to be a relatively precise prediction," Moore said. To keep his theory going, Moore said, "will take a lot of good engineering."

"The next five or 10 years is reasonably clear, and that's usually the case," Moore said. "You can usually see a few generations in the future. ... I still hope Brian [Krzanich, Intel's CEO] has enough good engineers working on the problem we won't hit a dead end."
Asked what he has learned from Moore's Law, he jokingly replied: "I guess one thing I've learned is once you make a successful prediction, avoid making another one."



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