Over at the 50th anniversary of the Alan Turing award, a panel of experts envisioned what the expected end of Moore's Law will mean for the semiconductor industry. You can read it at EE Times, with some expert views on how the industry will need to innovate around it.
“Moore’s Law said transistor density doubles every 18 months, something we maintained for 25 years, but it began slowing down to every two to three years around 2000-2005, and more recently we’re seeing doubling about every four years, so were reaching the end of semiconductor technology as we know it,” said John Hennessy, former president of Stanford University and author of a key text book on microprocessors.
Moore’s Law is really an observation about economics, not a law of physics. The question is whether we can find another aspect of physics that has a return on investment like CMOS, said Margaret Martonosi, a systems specialist at Princeton.