Blood test can predict likelihood of dying in next 5-10 years

Dutch researchers discovered that an analysis of just 14 metabolic substances in blood can predict how likely you are to die within the next five to ten years. The theory got back-tested using data from 7,603 Finnish people who were surveyed in 1997.

The results were quite impressive, the 14 biomarkers were about 83 percent accurate in predicting if someone would die within the next five years and ten years. However, for people over 60 years old, the accuracy dropped to about 72 percent.

The lineup of apparent markers of doom are perhaps not entirely surprising. Some are already known to signal deadly conditions, such as heart disease, cancers, and diabetes—all leading causes of death in Europe and the United States. The culprits include blood sugar; factors linked to “bad” cholesterol; glycoprotein acetyls and polyunsaturated fatty acids, which are linked to inflammation; and albumin, which can indicate kidney and liver problems. Still, some others, such as acetoacetate, aren’t as clearly linked to mortality and require some follow-up research, the authors say.

Nevertheless, “[i]n combination, these biomarkers clearly improve risk prediction of 5- and 10-year mortality as compared to conventional risk factors across all ages,” the authors conclude. “These results suggest that metabolic biomarker profiling could potentially be used to guide patient care, if further validated in relevant clinical settings.”

More details at ARS Technica. Further research is required to validate these biomarkers in clinical settings.