Speaking to WSJ, Musk explained the technology to build a fully autonomous car is just 5 to 6 years away and claimed that 15-20 years or so from now, owning a non-autonomous vehicle will be akin to owning a horse:
“They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame,” Musk told the WSJ.Musk also pointed out that the real roadblock for self-driving cars will not be the technology itself, but the regulatory hurdles and the collective fear from the driving public.
“Well, I’m actually on record saying that I think that all cars will go fully autonomous in the long-term,” Musk explained. “I think it will be quite unusual to see cars that don’t have full autonomy, let’s say, in 15-20 years. And for Tesla, it will be a lot sooner than that.”
Musk added that any car in the future that isn’t fully autonomous will have a “negative value.” And taking things home, Musk added that “in 20 years, if you have a car that isn’t autonomous, it will be like owning a horse. You’re really just owning it for sentimental reasons.”