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McConnell says that share gains versus AMD are “rapidly accelerating” in both notebooks and servers. “Our contacts now expect Intel’s overall processor share to move from 75% to 80% currently to 80% to 85% in the first half of 2008,” he writes. McConnell calculates that every 250 basis points of market share boost revenue by $815 million and profits by 3 cents a share.

According to McConnell, Dell (DELL) plans to “de-emphasize” the use of AMD processors in 2008, “due to the disappointing performance of Barcelona and Phenom, poor availability and AMD’s decision to deliver initial shipments of its new Phenom product line to the channel first rather than to OEMs.”