DDR shortage expected in 2010

DigiTimes reports DRAM will continue to rise in November. The site also heard from Nany Technology vice president Pai Pei-Lin that a shortage of memory chips is expected in 2010, as PC replacement demand will outpace capacity expansion. While some analysts believe Windows 7 will have little effect in PC demand, Pai believes the launch of Windows 7 will trigger a PC upgrade cycle that has been delayed for three years due to the disappointment with Windows Vista.

Contract prices for mainstream DDR2 chips have been on the rise since August, growing 20% monthly to surpass DDR3 prices in October, Pai indicated. The price rally for DDR2 is expected to continue in the next two months, but prices for DDR3 look more optimistic two months later, he said.

Major vendors are expected to adopt DDR3 for 50% of their memory needs (for both PCs and servers) in the first quarter of 2010, said Pai, noting that the vendors are unlikely to shift back their favor to DDR2 parts due to supply or pricing concerns.