Industry Gamers had an interview with Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter about the next-gen Wii, Activision vs EA, the new Mickey game and other things.
One of the things Pachter expects is that Nintendo's next-generation console will be on par technologically with the current Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 consoles. Pachter expressed his disappointment with Nintendo's management and states it was foolish of them to let Microsoft and Sony catch up with their own motion controllers.
The point of this long diatribe is that Nintendo now finds itself in a position of having to play catch up. Kinect and Move will have an installed base of 8 - 10 million by the end of 2010, and a base of 20 - 25 million by the time Nintendo launches its "next" generation console. If the Wii 2 is just a Wii on steroids, with technology similar to the PS3 or 360, it's going to be hard to tell current Wii customers that they should trade up, especially if the Wii 2 is priced close to the 360 plus Kinect or the PS3 plus Move, both of which I think could be offered at $249 by holiday 2011. Both of the competitive consoles have deep libraries of content available in HD, while the Wii 2 will have only a catalog of standard definition content. I don't see the third party publishers embracing the Wii 2 unless the technology is similar to the 360 or PS3, making ports inexpensive. Therefore, I can only conclude that the Wii 2 will not be "next" generation, and that Nintendo will have a lot of catching up to do. All of this could have been avoided by launching the Wii HD in late 2009 and making one of my predictions come true for a change ;-)