DRAMeXchange analysts believe Apple may sell as much as 4 million iPhones this year. They also predict that Apple will capture one percent of the global cell phone market in 2008:
DRAMeXchange conservatively projects roughly 4 million iPhones will be shipped in the second half of 2007. In 2008, the product will account for 1% of the worldwide cell phone market, or in other words, about 12 million iPhones will be shipped, the market tracking firm estimates. Apple itself earlier this year said it would sell 8 million iPhone products in 2008.
If the shipment ratio between the 4GB and 8GB are the same in 2007, roughly 192 million (in 1Gb equivalents) flash chips will be consumed by Apple’s new cell phone. This figure will represent 2.4% of the overall flash supply in the second half of the year, which is not particularly high, notes DRAMeXchange in its brief analysis. If Apple wishes to generate strong iPhone sales during this year’s Christmas season, the stocking up of the flash inventory would need to begin in Q3 2007, where it will represent 5.7% of the quarterly market output.