Bit Tech had a chat with Intel CTO Justin Rattner about future transistor technology. Rattner sounded confident that CMOS technology will be used until at least 2020 and says Intel has already "locked and loaded" when it comes to its 32nm process.
Intel still needs to do quite a lot of work on the 22nm process and Rattner says that either at 22nm or probably at 16nm the firm will start using tri-gate transistors:
“The jury is still out at 22nm and beyond,” he said. “As to whether we’ll continue with traditional transistors, or whether we’ll move to a surface device such as tri-gate transistors that we’ve been talking about now for at least the last four or five years.”
Rattner added that it’s a decision Intel is going to face at at either 22nm or probably at 16nm. “It’s a very important transition—it’s as important as high-k metal gate—because once you’re on the surface you’re going to have a much wider choice of materials. And you can build conventional CMOS devices with tri-gate transistors, which are essentially just better CMOS transistors.”
“It’s sometime in that next decade [after the transition to surface CMOS technology] around the time when we’re making 10nm devices that we want to start looking at other quantum properties,” said Rattner. “Historically, we’ve not been able to look more than a decade out and it takes around a decade to perfect the use of these new materials. For example, our work in high-k started about a decade ago and that’s a good measure for how long these technology advancements take.”