Analyst: Tablets to hurt PC sales

For starters, Reitzes today trimmed his 2010 PC unit growth forecast to 19% from 21%, to reflect both the impact of the tablet and slowing growth in Europe and some other regions. Reitzes thinks that “media tablets” will sell at least 15 million units in 2010, growing to 28 million in 2011. “We believe this category will have a negative impact on overall PC unit volumes, pushing out and even replacing some notebook sales,” he writes. Reitzes says it is “prudent” to use a 30%-40% cannibalization rate of the low-end notebook market. He also contends that Apple should be able to maintain a 70%-plus share of the category over the long haul given its “enormous lead time to market, software, content, design and ease of use.”