NVIDIA Ampere replacement not coming until 2023?

Well-known and often quite accurate Twitter leaker kopite7kimi claims NVIDIA's next-generation gaming video cards will come much later than most people expect. He now expects NVIDIA will extend Ampere's life until at least the end of 2022.

This hints the arrival of Hopper or Lovelace based gaming cards may not happen before 2023. According to the rumor mill, NVIDIA's next big thing could be a chiplet design made on a 5nm process.

So why is it taking so long? There's is not an exact answer. PCGamesHardware speculates it could be due to issues with the 5nm node. Perhaps yields at TSMC will not be good enough for the production of big, high-performance GPUs until sometime well into the future.

With a successor not in sight, it seems likely we'll get a refresh of the Ampere series. Next month, NVIDIA will roll out new parts with Resizable Bar and a new hash rate limiter. That's a revision and not a refresh, of course. Sometime later this year we may see SUPER variants of the Ampere series, with higher clockspeeds.

I guess Ampere's life will be extended at least until the end of next year.

— kopite7kimi (@kopite7kimi) April 28, 2021